Hints and Tips #5
How to Evaluate Team Needs for the Off Season
Your team just finished out a 5-11 campaign by losing to the division champs. You take a look at your final season statistics, and you're ready to find your problem and fix it before next year. Sure enough, it only takes a minute to find it – you're team ranked 28th out of 30 teams in rushing, and you're HB1 only had about 800 yards all season. So, you decide that in Free Agency and the draft, you’ll go get a new HB1 and problem solved, right? Wrong. In fact, that will probably make you even worse because chances are, the old HB1 is fine and you just wasted a really high pick (or a lot of Prestige Points) on a player you don’t really need.
So, what is the right way to determine what your needs are? First and foremost, you have to realize that statistics and ratings don’t always tell the whole story. Most of the time, they don’t even tell half the story. You have to look deeper to find the true cause of your losing ways. You need to not only look at the statistics, but analyze why they are the way they are. Here’s how you do it.
First, you have to determine if there is an underlying reason you can’t run (or pass, or defend) the ball. If you’re ranked 28th in rushing, is there a reason other than talent? For example, is your team pass happy? You might average 5 yards a carry (which is great), but only run the ball 10-15 times a game. Or, maybe your defense is bad, so you’re constantly trying to catch up, which means passing a lot and just about abandoning the running game.
The same thing can work in reverse. Suppose you look at your stats and see that you’re ranked 5th against the pass. So, you think ‘Great, I don’t have to worry about that.’ However, if you’re team is horrible against the run, teams don’t have to pass much to score on you, hence the high ranking. My point is, always look deeper than ratings and statistics.
When you finally determine what the problem is, you have to figure out how to correct it. Going back to previous examples, suppose you ultimately decide that your running game is your biggest problem. Now what? Change the HB? Or FB? Or linemen? Maybe, maybe not. The first thing you need to do is see if the plays you are running ‘fit’ your linemen and backs. What I mean by this is, some plays that work great for some teams don’t work at all for others. Look at Travis Jervey of Rome. His ratings aren’t that great, especially compared to some of the other top backs. But, he’s 2nd in the WFFL in rushing, and he still has a chance to win the title. Why? Because the Rome owner has found the perfect rushing plays for him, and in those plays, Jervey is practically unstoppable. If you have Barry Sanders and you’re constantly running him up the middle, that could be your problem right there. Likewise, if you’re running a ton of pitches and sweeps with Jamal Anderson, something’s not right.
So, suppose you do your homework and you find the plays that maximizes your HB’s running, but you still can’t gain yards. What then? At this point, it comes down to talent. It can either be your HB, or your OL. Or, maybe even your FB. How do you know which? Easy. Compare the ratings of your players to those of players on other teams, and do this for each position in question. If your HB matches up well with half of the other starting HB’s in the league, chances are he’s not your problem. However, if you compare him and his key ratings (SP, AG, maybe AC and ST) are consistently lower than other HB’s, then there is a good chance you need to replace him.
I’ll give you a good example. In the WFFL, my team was ranked 30th in rushing offense. At the same time, my passing offense was doing well, and my defense kept me in most ballgames. I studied plays to find the ones that worked the best, but I still couldn’t run. I finally determined that talent was my problem. I looked at my HB1 (Robert Edwards) and his ratings are comparable to most of the starting HB’s in the league, so I was confused. Then, I looked at my offensive line. My C (Steve Everitt) and T’s (Tra Thomas and Walter Jones) were among the best in the league at their positions, so I thought the line couldn’t be my problem. Then, I looked at my G’s (Calvin Collins and Jorge Diaz). While both players were okay, their ST was only around 88 or 89, which I though was a little low. Plus, most of my run plays went up the middle. So, I went out and traded for a strong G, Brenden Stai (ST of 94). In his first game, I rushed for 120 yards, including 100 by Edwards. In the 3 weeks since, I’ve passed 120 yards each time. I’m not ranked much higher because I was so bad earlier, but my running game is about twice as good as it was, just from adding a stronger G.
You can do the same thing for a defense. Either way, before you rush out to pick up that rookie HB, make sure that’s what you need. The other good thing about doing this is, most people want to pick up ‘skill’ position players, the QB’s, WR’s, HB’s, etc. If your problem turns out to be a on the line, or a FB, chances are you can upgrade for much less than you can at HB or QB.
Next week, we will discuss how to evaluate individual players for trades and we’ll show you how to determine if you’re paying too much when you deal.